Nevertheless, it was pretty likely that either the switch board or the control board, which also contains the IR sensor, was to blame.
So I went ahead and unplugged the switch board first. The TV was stable. That was interesting. How could a switch break without getting used at all? I still did not believe it. The IR board contained nothing but the sensor and the connector to the switches. Others have a controller on it. Not here, the controller was integrated on the main board. I swapped a 47ยต cap on the board, just to be sure. No effect.
Ok, so the culprit must be the switch board. I removed it an put it on the table. While pressing down on the connector solder joints with my meter probes, the TV would not show any symptoms. Aha. I took the board in my hands and twisted it slightly. Clockwise twisting reliably produced the problem.
The board has two output lines. Each button is connected via ground and a pull down resistor to one of the lines. This produces an individual voltage for each button. The line with the volume buttons was erratic with an unstable voltage. I unsoldered a resistor, a cap and a diode. Still the same. So I finally measured the volume-up button and what can I say, it changed its resistance wildly. Not quite down to zero, just in-between so that the controller sometimes decided that the other button was pressed.
What the...? The button worked totally fine, yet it produced a leakage current. I have never seen anything like this.
Button removed and everything was back to normal. I had no replacement at hand, but the owner did not mind to leave it out, as it had never been used anyway(!)
Some wire-redressing with fresh tape and the TV was good to go.
Let's take the switch apart and see what we find:
The body shows some shiny residue, which might be conductive. Not easy to tell, but that is the only irregularity I could find.
My theory is that some material had been creeping into the switch during the re-flow phase of production. On top of that just a slight amount of oxide during 7 years and that could be just enough to connect the outer contact with the central pin. Who knows?
So, I guess, these switches are actually fixable with a proper cleanup.